F1 data analysis: The hidden Mercedes factor behind Verstappen’s McLaren-beating lap

F1 data analysis: Max Verstappen delivers when it matters most

The free practice sessions on Friday gave no indication that we would be seeing Verstappen and Red Bull in contention for pole — all eyes were on McLaren and Ferrari, who appeared to be the teams to beat.

During FP2, which is usually the most representative practice session of the weekend, Max only managed the fifth-fastest time with a gap of nearly half a second to the front.

Throughout the practice sessions, Red Bull experimented with different aerodynamic setups on the rear wing, ultimately deciding to run with a low-downforce configuration.

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This adjustment gave the RB21 a significant advantage in top speed, which is crucial at Silverstone, though it also meant sacrificing grip through the fast corners.

But as our analysis of the telemetry data reveals, that decision paid off.

The minisector map shows Max’s dominance on the straights and in the high-speed corners, meaning the reduced downforce didn’t cost him in those sections.

Meanwhile, the McLaren drivers were clearly quicker in the slowest corners on the circuit.

When we take a closer look at the fast laps from Verstappen and Piastri, we can spot small mistakes and fine details that can prove costly at a place like Silverstone.

Right from the start of the lap, Verstappen benefited from a small slipstream off Russell, who was running ahead of him, further boosting his already superior straight-line speed.

This helped him carry more speed through the first two high-speed corners, giving him an advantage of around 0.2s at that stage of the lap.

Piastri, on the other hand, had a stronger exit from T3 and T4, where Verstappen had to momentarily lift off due to a slight oversteer moment.

Through Brooklands and T7, both drivers were practically matched, until the straight leading up to Copse where the low-drag RB21 really shone.

The graph below illustrates just how much quicker Verstappen was through Copse and later through Maggotts — note how the white delta line climbs steeply in this part of the lap.

Here, Max gained nearly 0.4s on Piastri.

Another key detail was the slice of luck Max enjoyed.

Just after Copse, he caught Andrea Kimi Antonelli at just the right moment to pick up a significant slipstream — Max’s second of the lap.

The telemetry data confirms this when comparing his pole lap to his first Q3 attempt, where you can clearly see the higher top speed after Copse in his second fast lap.

Would Max have taken the pole without these helping hands?

It’s hard to say with certainty, but the gap would almost certainly have been smaller — especially given the error he made at the end of the lap.

As mentioned, the lack of downforce on the RB21 created challenges in the slower corners and this could easily have cost Verstappen pole.

In T16 and T17, Piastri’s car was much more stable and carried greater apex speed, gaining him over 0.2s just in those two corners.

Fortunately for Verstappen, it wasn’t enough and he edged it — but only just.

We see very similar characteristics when comparing Norris’s lap to those of Verstappen and Piastri.

It’s fascinating to observe how different the cars’ characteristics were and how contrasting the aerodynamic approaches turned out to be.

In the end, it was Verstappen who prevailed and much credit goes to his team — first for opting for the low-loaded rear wing and then for nailing the timing of his second Q3 run.

Add in that slice of luck, which certainly favoured the reigning champion on this occasion, as well as his incredible ability to dance on the limit, and you get a simply lovely result.

What can we expect from Max Verstappen in the race?

As we’ve seen throughout the season so far, Red Bull looked fairly solid during its FP2 long runs.

Running with less downforce at Silverstone could mean more challenges in keeping the tyres within the ideal temperature window, especially given that frequent small slides tend to raise tyre temperatures and accelerate wear.

On the other hand, the weather could also play a key role — and any rain would present an additional challenge for Red Bull precisely because of the lower-downforce setup.

After qualifying, Verstappen didn’t seem overly optimistic about the race pace.

It’s clear that McLaren still hold the upper hand when it comes to managing tyre degradation over a race distance.

That said, we’ve seen on several occasions this season that when Max finds himself ahead of both McLaren drivers, he knows how to make it count.

So, even at Silverstone, it would be unwise to rule him out.