Red Bull’s weakening championship suggests the team needs to take a big risk for the final races, so why not call upon Daniel Ricciardo for a last hurrah?

Red Bull’s position in the Constructors’ Championship has weakened considerably in recent races, with Perez’s form proving such that the reigning World Champions have slipped to third in the standings and, seemingly, have little chance of turning things around.

Sergio Perez: Is his seat safe following Mexico City GP?

With the RB20 no longer capable of race victories, Max Verstappen’s approach to racing has changed – no longer solely focused on delivering the best result he and the car are capable of, his main quest is simply to beat Lando Norris as the opportunities for the McLaren man to reduce the gap shrink week by week.

Verstappen’s points tally is 362 points, with Perez’s total just 150 after the 20th race weekend of the season. Combined, this amounts to 512 – Perez has scored just under 30 percent of Red Bull’s points tally, with Verstappen very much doing the heavy lifting.

But even Verstappen is no longer able to haul the Red Bull to wins and, without a dominant car, Perez’s performance level has been exposed to a much more stark reality. On a good day, Perez is now only eyeing up the lower points finishes while, on a bad day, he’s not even in the top 10.

It’s all left Red Bull very exposed and it seems that, with four races to go, there are no plans to change anything about the dynamic. The moment of truth came after Spa-Francorchamps when, after seemingly being set to take the plunge on swapping in Daniel Ricciardo in place of Perez for the second half of the season, the idea was abandoned.

Perez was safe but the wording of Christian Horner’s statement at the time was careful, as it didn’t confirm him for the rest of the season: “Checo [Perez] remains a Red Bull Racing driver despite recent speculation, and we look forward to seeing him perform at tracks he has previously excelled at after the summer break.”

Of course, aside from a good weekend in Baku (which also came to naught due to a late collision with Carlos Sainz), Perez hasn’t rewarded that faith. But Red Bull has remained unwaveringly loyal to him – aside from being honest about Perez’s poor form, and the need for him to dig deeper and perform better, there haven’t been any angry words or the finger of blame pointed at Perez for how costly his performance level has been.

It indicates the high regard Perez holds within the team. Polite, affable, and charming, Perez is well-liked at the Milton Keynes-based squad, and that’s before taking into account his work ethic. Between his affabilities and his marketability (and some very wealthy sponsors), the Mexican’s popularity has kept him behind the wheel of a Red Bull for far longer than many would have expected four months ago.

But the patience is wearing thin. Perez has never been what anyone could call consistent over a season with Red Bull, but this year’s slump has been catastrophic in its effect on the team.

Having missed the moment at which a change could have been implemented before the situation worsened, Perez has become the epitome of the sunken cost fallacy. With four races left to go, and Red Bull more than 50 points behind the strong two-driver pairings of Ferrari and McLaren, each of whom has quicker cars, it seems too late to make a change that might save the day.

The Mexico City Grand Prix, as Perez’s home race, had been frequently postulated as being the race up until which he would be safe in his seat, with the understanding being that the safety and mental strength of a replacement driver in the face of public hostility was considered a factor in whether or not to replace Perez.

Put simply, would a fresh-faced rookie like Liam Lawson be able to withstand a jarring display of animosity from Perez’s fans, and, more to the point, would he be safe?

Either way, Mexico is now done and dusted with no on-track reward to show for it from Perez, and it was evident that the pressure is now ramping up further on him – Christian Horner was conspicuous about not addressing whether or not Perez is safe for the rest of the season as he spoke to media, including PlanetF1.com, after the Grand Prix, in which the home hero finished 17th from his 18th-place grid slot.

Certainly, Perez will be behind the wheel of the RB20 for this weekend’s Brazilian Grand Prix – but could the squad simply decide to try something fresh for the final three races?

It’s probably not worth it at this point, to be brutal about it. With the performance of the car falling away through the middle part of the season, Verstappen’s best efforts are scarcely enough to secure podiums at this point, and, even with two Verstappens, the championship would appear out of reach against the stronger driver and car combinations.

But, until defeat comes, there are options that must be weighed up to give the team the best chance of recovering the situation.

It would be very costly to pry Perez out of his contract before the end of the season and, on top of that, it appears slightly too early to stick Lawson into the seat after a flawed display in Mexico. The messaging from the Perez camp is very much that he has no intentions of going anywhere, but this doesn’t mean much – if he isn’t leaving of his own volition, it’s a matter of stumping up the money to remove him or examining the performance requirements in his contract that he, presumably, hasn’t lived up to.

With nothing to lose at this point, Red Bull could try something exciting for the final triple-header – it would answer a lot of questions, reward a Red Bull veteran, and perhaps result in paying off for the team.

Pleading the case for Daniel Ricciardo

Having been shuffled off into what appears to be F1 retirement as Red Bull took the decision to pop Lawson into his VCARB seat after Singapore, Ricciardo’s redemption arc has come to an end after all the promises that 2023 suggested.

The Australian’s form was far from stellar, but nor did he spend most of this season looking completely out of his depth alongside Yuki Tsunoda. There were flashes of form, never consistently, but Ricciardo proved a far more capable teammate for Tsunoda than Perez has been for Verstappen this season and, aside from that, there are quite a few upsides to taking the chance on Ricciardo for the final triple-header.

As mentioned about Perez’s affability and likeability, Ricciardo is one of the most popular drivers on the grid globally. It has resulted in him having the choice of whether or not to continue working with Red Bull once he’s spent some time away from F1 and is ready to ponder the future, but the nature of his departure didn’t befit a driver of his status.

The ‘is he or isn’t he?’ uncertainty of Singapore has resulted in him quietly departing the sport after 12 years without a public goodbye, but there is still the opportunity to give him a proper send-off while also benefitting from what he still has to offer.

Of course, this argument would be unnecessary if Perez was contributing in any significant way or showed signs of breaking out of his slump. But, Azerbaijan aside, Perez has simply not shown the form to justify his position, leading to the pointed comments of “tough decisions needing to be made” by Christian Horner.

With Perez not performing, Red Bull simply has nothing to lose by sticking Ricciardo in the car as a three-race send-off. The Australian’s strengths were highlighted by the driving styles of the Red Bull when he raced for them in the past and, with Verstappen still being on the team, the car shouldn’t feel completely alien to him.

While it would have been better to do this before quietly dropping him, Ricciardo had made clear his loyalty to Red Bull after their decision to bring him back into the fold in F1. This loyalty may have taken a hit recently but it’s worth noting the Australian didn’t spend Singapore slagging off the decision made for him.

With Oliver Bearman, Franco Colapinto, and Lawson all proving it is possible to simply jump in an F1 car and get most of its potential straight away, the argument that Ricciardo needs time to adjust is less significant – if they can do it, surely an eight-time Grand Prix winner can.

That experience could prove invaluable in the last trio of races. Unlike Lawson, Ricciardo has the experience of running with the big boys up front and has proven capable of handling that pressure.

In a season where Perez has fallen apart to the point where Red Bull is essentially a one-driver team at the crunch point of the championship, it’s time to take a risk.

Ricciardo may not be the force he once was but he isn’t likely to do any worse than Perez is managing, has all of the boxes ticked for a feel-good story, and there’s the certainty that he will be giving his all to sign off from F1 in a positive way while trying to rescue Red Bull’s championship – the team with whom he’s most associated.

There’s always the possibility that Ricciardo wouldn’t even be open to the idea anymore, given the emotional rollercoaster that he’s been through – if he’s come to terms once again that his career is over, then getting the call back to a Red Bull seat with the mission to more ably back up Max Verstappen might be a step too far.

But Red Bull has nothing to lose by asking and stands to benefit from the risk, as Perez’s performance level can and will cost them the title. Lawson is unproven, and a risk too far at this point – he may be brilliant at racing near the front, but he lacks the experience upon which Red Bull can rely.

But Ricciardo? The pros far outweigh the cons and, on top of that, Ricciardo then gets a proper send-off with a front-running team and a final chance to contribute to a title fight.

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What about Red Bull’s line-up for F1 2025?

Then, for F1 2025, having bid adieu to Ricciardo properly, is it time to start afresh at Red Bull Racing? Very much so.

With uncertainty over Verstappen’s long-term future, whether he eyes up a fresh challenge somewhere like Aston Martin or Mercedes, or simply decides to cut and run from F1 if the F1 2026 regulations prove unpalatable, Red Bull must look to the future.

If the future is Lawson, then he must be in the RB21 next year – there can’t be another year of trying to help a driver get his car into the minuscule window he needs to perform, as Perez has done all season.

Keeping Tsunoda for F1 2025 is already a done deal, so figuring out who to stick in the second VCARB then becomes the biggest headache for Red Bull – and that’s not particularly difficult either. With Isack Hadjar set to finish near the front of Formula 2, the Red Bull junior is ready to be taken out of the oven and tested on the big stage.

Or, if Hadjar isn’t the right choice for VCARB, then the delightfully surprising Franco Colapinto needs a drive – and he very much ticks all the Red Bull boxes. Fast, daring, and very far from boring on or off-track, his form is such that he’s already attracting attention from prominent sponsors. With marketing promise, and the adulation of his home country in the South American market, he’s far from anonymous – and that’s just how Red Bull likes it.

My predictions for Red Bull’s driver line-ups see Lawson alongside Verstappen at the main team, and Tsunoda alongside Colapinto with Hadjar taking on the reserve role for both teams.

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