McLaren’s strategy indecision is the biggest threat to their title chances

McLaren’s indecision will cost them the title over the long run

In Suzuka, the race was won during qualifying with a stunning lap from Max Verstappen to take pole but McLaren’s indecision when it came to race strategy only made the Dutchman’s job easier.

Despite Verstappen on pole, McLaren could still be seen as having the stronger result given they had two drivers in the top three and, as we have seen for a number of years, Red Bull are a one-driver team meaning a rival has a significant advantage if both of their cars can put pressure on Verstappen.

This was the case in Japan with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri filling out the positions immediately behind Verstappen, and yet McLaren never took full advantage of that.

After all three drivers made a good start, staying in their grid positions, the next phase of the race was always going to be crucial. With minimal rain forecast and low deg, Pirelli predicted a one-stop strategy, meaning teams had one ace card to play in the race. The crucial part was when to play it.

First, McLaren tried the most obvious dummy in F1 history, bait not taken by Red Bull, but when George Russell pitted, it forced McLaren into a move not of their own free will.

They brought in Piastri, potentially setting up a Hungary-esque situation where the driver behind is given preferential treatment, and if that was a smart move, what they did with Norris made little sense.

Having seen their dummy go unanswered, McLaren inexplicably decided to pit Norris in the same lap as Verstappen. To make matters worse, they released him almost into the path of the Dutchman, causing Norris to either slow or drive over the grass, of which he did the latter.

It was in this minute that the race was won. If Verstappen was able to pit and come out ahead, the conditions and layout of Suzuka meant it was going to be tough for any driver to pass him.

Meanwhile, Kimi Antonelli – a rookie in his first season – led the race for 10 laps on old mediums, demonstrating clearly that tyre degradation was not a deciding factor.

Pitting Norris at the same time was McLaren’s first mistake, but what came later was arguably a more frustrating offence.

With 15 laps to go, Piastri had closed the gap to Norris who himself was being kept at arm’s length by Verstappen. Why then did McLaren not roll the dice? To try anything to make Verstappen’s life harder?

For a team that is determined to have two No. 1 drivers, they should have allowed Piastri to pass and go and attack Verstappen, under the agreement that if he is unsuccessful, he would surrender the place back to Norris.

The best-case scenario is that Piastri gets past Verstappen then holds the Dutchman up to allow Norris a run on P2. Worst case scenario is at least the Australian could force Verstappen to use up more rubber than he would like and leave him vulnerable to Norris.

Instead, McLaren chose a passive option of ‘let’s see if something that has happened all race continues to happen’. Surprise, surprise, it did.

More reaction from the Japanese Grand Prix

Lando Norris issues Red Bull warning as pitlane incident verdict offered

Revealed: What Max Verstappen said to Lando Norris after dramatic Japanese GP pit moment

It is not the first time in recent memory that McLaren’s strategy team has been left wanting. Hungary, Monza, Silverstone and many more races last season saw the team put themselves in needlessly difficult situations, so much so that there was a reshuffle of the strategy team over the winter.

Oli Cartlidge, former strategist solely for Norris, was promoted to lead race strategist for the whole team, while familiar face Randy Singh is now racing director. But these changes have brought a similar result.

Without context, Japan looks like a good result for McLaren. 33 points for the team and extending their lead in the Constructors’ but Norris now just one point ahead of Verstappen despite the Dutchman not having the best car on the grid.

When going up against a rival such as Verstappen, you have to be brutally effective when you are on top. McLaren’s advantage is likely to be at its biggest at the start of the year and this victory will give Red Bull even more drive to bring more performance to the car.

Therefore, Japan has to be seen as a missed opportunity. In a season predicted to be as tight as this, you cannot afford to let indecision become your decision.

The strength of their two drivers makes McLaren the favourite to retain the Constructors’ but if they have any hope of wrestling that Drivers’ crown away from Milton Keynes, they need to take more risks than this.