Qatar GP race predictions: A potential Russell win, much-needed Perez points in Lusail

Qatar Grand Prix race predictions: What may unfold in Lusail

With Max Verstappen on pole, before his one-place grid penalty at least, George Russell in the hunt and the question mark over whether McLaren will get back on track, we are looking at a race that strategically won’t see much variety.

Medium-hard will be the option of choice for most drivers while other drivers out of their natural position such as Nico Hülkenberg or Liam Lawson could opt for the hard-medium in search of an overcut.

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Qatar GP race and encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race as well in the comments section below!

F1 data analysis: Qatar Grand Prix weekend so far

???? Sprint qualifying data reveals biggest ‘enemy’ to Constructors’ challengers in Qatar

???? Data reveals how McLaren team orders hampered George Russell in Qatar GP Sprint

10. Pierre Gasly

After a very positive pace in the Sprint race and holding off Max Verstappen for more than seven laps, it’s time for the French driver to recover from the unexpected engine failure in Las Vegas. He will start P11, but Fernando Alonso should drop positions against Haas and Gasly’s Alpine during the first half of the race.

9. Sergio Perez

After a terrible Sprint qualifying and a worse Sprint race, the Mexican driver bounced back thanks to set-up changes in the RB20 to get into Q3 for the first time since Austin.

He will start behind Fernando Alonso and will probably have a very tough race. Precedent tells us that placing him in the points is even too optimistic, but we are confident that with the top speed of his car and thanks to the ‘jump’ he made in qualifying, he will be more confident.

8. Kevin Magnussen

Haas is undoubtedly the fifth-fastest car at the Lusail circuit. After a very positive Sprint race of Nico Hülkenberg, who finished ahead of Max Verstappen, it is now the Danish driver who has to lead the American team into the points after a poor qualifying from his German team-mate.

7. Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton will start sixth ahead of Carlos Sainz on the grid. Still, he succumbed to the Ferrari on race pace yesterday despite putting up a great fight. The W15 looks a good car in Qatar and should have a chance to make up positions as he did in Las Vegas, although it looks much closer here between Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull.

No doubt, fighting for P4 or P5 is within his reach. Everything will depend on his level of motivation after repeating again that he feels he is no longer fast enough. During Sundays at least he has shown that this is not the case.

6. Carlos Sainz

The Spanish driver should finish between P5 and P7 after being the worst qualifier – excluding Sergio Perez – of the ‘Big Four’ teams. Ferrari didn’t look strong in qualifying pace or in the Sprint race and they don’t look likely to challenge McLaren in the main race either.

He will start P7 and his biggest struggles in the race should be with Charles Leclerc, as in Las Vegas, and against Hamilton.

5. Charles Leclerc

Good qualifying for the Monégasque driver who will start P5. Ferrari’s pace in the race doesn’t seem to be exceptional enough to catch their direct rivals. P4 should be the maximum he is aiming for if there are no surprises ahead.

The fight against McLaren for the Constructors’ Championship is increasingly going in the favour of the Papaya team and only a surprise tomorrow can turn the tide at Lusail.

4. Oscar Piastri

After taking the win in the Sprint race thanks to a great defence and subsequent teammate gesture from Lando Norris, the Australian’s pace will depend highly on whether he manages to find a DRS train as he did in the Sprint race or if he has clean air ahead of him.

In the second scenario, he could suffer against Ferrari and their higher top speed on the straights as he is struggling to find his own pace in the last events of this long season.

3. Lando Norris

With nothing at stake individually and the Constructors’ Championship within reach, McLaren could again opt to use the same tactics as in the Sprint race to hold off Ferrari behind: keep positions with both drivers and maximise points for the team, managing tyres and only really push if they are under threat of being undercut.

Winning the first championship since 1998 is no small matter and to risk losing points with any contact when trying to overtake or aggressive defending would be unwise.

They must race with their heads rather than their hearts at this stage of the season and Lando has already shown during the Sprint race that this is the plan to follow to beat Ferrari.

2. Max Verstappen

After scoring his first pole position since the Austrian GP – and subsequently being penalised by the stewards – Red Bull’s engineers and mechanics have done a great job of fixing the RB20’s balance for this weekend’s main event.

The unknown is whether the car will perform as well on tyres and in race temperatures. The four-time World Champion’s chances of victory will depend heavily on race pace. If he is positive, he should be one of the favourites… but there is one driver who has been much more solid all weekend and who will also have clean air to show his true pace.

1. George Russell

After clearly showing better pace than Oscar Piastri’s MCL38 in the Sprint race and only being held up by the DRS train generated by Lando Norris, the Mercedes driver has a great chance to take his second consecutive win this season and show the true race pace of the W15.

McLaren has taken a slight dip in performance from its rivals after the Sprint format where it has maximised points and it is Russell in great form in recent races perhaps best placed to start from P1 after Max Verstappen’s penalty to be the champion in Qatar.