Why Ferrari could struggle in Qatar and Mercedes could spring another surprise

Qatar Grand Prix: A technical challenge

This technically demanding track requires a different preparation approach compared to others. Let’s explore the factors teams must consider and how they plan to tackle the fight for the Constructors’ title.

While both the Las Vegas and Qatar circuits are set in desert environments and host night races, their similarities end there. Unlike the cold temperatures in Nevada, Qatar offers ambient temperatures of around 25°C.

This weekend also marks the last of six sprint weekends, meaning teams will have just one practice session to prepare for a track where they lack extensive data.

Last year’s race at this venue was memorable for the extreme heat, which posed a true test of endurance for both drivers and tyres. Pirelli identified potential issues, leading to an unprecedented rule requiring every driver to make at least three pit stops. This decision was made due to excessive tyre degradation and a significant risk of tyre failures.

With most corners being medium and high-speed, tyre stress will be exceptionally high. The front left tyre will bear the brunt, and tyre management will play a crucial role in performance.

To avoid a repeat of last year, changes have been made to the track, including modifications to the shape and size of the kerbs, with sharper edges now rounded to reduce tyre damage. Furthermore, Pirelli engineers, in collaboration with the FIA, have conducted extensive tests throughout the year to prepare for this GP.

High temperatures and humidity will also play a significant role, potentially creating effects similar to Las Vegas but for entirely different reasons. In Nevada, extremely low temperatures caused tyres to slide, generating surface abrasion.

To address these challenges, teams will use Pirelli’s hardest tyre compounds: C3 (soft), C4 (medium), and C5 (hard).

Another critical factor at this venue is the high level of track evolution. This means that as the weekend progresses, the surface will offer better grip, making it advantageous to set a qualifying time as late as possible.

Aerodynamic challenges at the Lusail Circuit

Regarding aerodynamic setups, the downforce level for this circuit is rated at 4 out of 5. Teams will prioritise stability and speed in fast corners, sacrificing some top speed on the main straight.

Configuración de alas traseras para Qatar

Rear wing configuration for Qatar#f1 pic.twitter.com/fYZNwzxyc0

— Albert Fabrega (@AlbertFabrega) November 28, 2024

From the images above, we can see that the rear wing designs are quite similar, featuring a medium-high level of downforce.

However, rear wings are not the only concern for aerodynamicists this weekend. Due to last year’s driver cooling issues and extreme conditions, teams will need to address this problem more thoroughly.

Larger cooling inlets on the nose of the car are expected to improve driver cooling, though these will negatively affect overall aerodynamics. It will be fascinating to see how engineers approach this challenge and whether any innovative solutions emerge.

Who will benefit most at the Qatar circuit?

The Lusail Circuit is a proper racing track, which will undoubtedly favour certain teams. These conditions should theoretically suit McLaren, which currently has one of the fastest cars. The MCL38 performs exceptionally well in high-speed corners, so we can expect McLaren’s drivers to be very competitive, particularly in the second sector.

However, a team that might surprise despite low expectations is Mercedes. Following a dominant race last weekend in Las Vegas, they are unlikely to maintain that level of performance here.

This season, Mercedes has excelled in cooler conditions, which they leveraged both in Vegas and earlier in Belgium. What will help them this weekend is the entirely flat nature of the Qatar track. The W15, one of the “lowest” cars on the grid, performs better on smooth surfaces, allowing the team to optimise its setup fully. Effective tyre management will also be crucial for their success.

In addition to McLaren and Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull will be looking to close the gap to the top of the Constructors’ Championship.

Unfortunately, tracks like this do not suit Ferrari’s car. High-speed corners and greater tyre wear have been significant challenges for the Italian team this season. The harsh truth is that Ferrari is the only top-three team with both drivers in good form, which could play a key role in their fight for the title.