Why Mercedes can win the F1 2025 world title

How did they do in 2024?

There were positives but it was another frustrating campaign for Toto Wolff and his team. They began 2024 with the thunderbolt news that Lewis Hamilton was departing for pastures new but the loss of the seven-time World Champion was never their biggest problem.

Having struggled through ‘22 and ‘23, the W15 was a step in the right direction but even still, it shared many of the problems of its predecessors, namely that finding the right setup was near impossible.

Strong starts on Friday were quickly undone by quali and even reserve driver Mick Schumacher working his fingers to the bone in the Brackley simulator could not yield the solution.

Data shows that Mercedes were strongest at colder venues but the nature of the F1 calendar means that cannot be building blocks for success and although they won more races in 2024 than they have done in the previous two seasons, there is still a sizable gap between them and their competition.

A fourth place finish, their lowest since 2012, suggested there was an almighty gap to bridge.

What they need to do

The answer is both simple and very complex – fix the car.

James Allison and his team are the key ingredients to any potential title push and talk of drivers or strategy is moot when the car they are driving is underwhelming.

The positive for the Silver Arrows is that 2024 hinted at a blueprint for success, if not presenting it in its entirety. Performance gains at Silverstone and Las Vegas showed what the car liked but the key will be how they take those same metrics and apply them at hotter venues.

F1 is far enough into its current regulation cycle that we have three teams who can be classed as strong all-rounders and turn up at any circuit with at least a chance of victory.

In 2024, Mercedes were not one of those teams but if they have any hope of winning the title, they will need to become one.

What about the drivers?

Despite all the talk of the car being the main problem, the focus in 2025 from the outside will undoubtedly be on the drivers and the Lewis Hamilton-shaped hole in the team.

It is the first time in the modern Mercedes era that they have not had a World Champion in one of their cars and while some may see that as a sign of falling down the pecking order, Wolff is betting the farm on his young lineup.

George Russell, who will be the oldest driver in a team for the first time, proved he could fulfil the leader role last season and heading into his seventh campaign, he is arguably at the peak of his powers.

Meanwhile, the young prodigy Kimi Antonelli has been hoisted into the hot seat at the age of 18 and has been talked about as the next Max Verstappen, that is Toto Wolff’s hope anyway.

It would be unrealistic to suspect Antonelli to get anywhere near the level of Verstappen but his young blood and new enthusiasm will be a breath of fresh air to a Mercedes team that seemed like it was under a cloud in 2024.

Lewis Hamilton’s farewell tour left a bitter taste in the mouth and it will be an entirely new challenge for Peter ‘Bono’ Bonnington to go from one of the most experienced drivers on the grid to the youngest.

Who is their MVP?

Forget Russell, forget Antonelli, forget even Wolff. The man who Mercedes’ season depends on is James Allison.

The British technical director was the architect of some of Mercedes’ finest ever cars and it has not gone unnoticed that his move to a broader role and away from F1 team coincided with the disastrous 2022 season. Mistakes they are still paying for now.

Allison has the pedigree but the question is can even a mind like his make up for the lost time?

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Why they won’t

The answer as to why Mercedes won’t win the title is simple – they are starting too far behind.

McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull were all comfortably ahead of the Brackley squad in 2024 and given it is the same set of regulations, it is hard to see how Mercedes can make such a jump in performance between seasons.

There is also the looming spectre of 2026 coming into view. Some of the most substantial regulation changes in history mean teams will be putting in extra effort to make sure they begin the next cycle on the front foot and that will come at the expense of 2025’s gains.

A strong start may convince the team to put all their eggs in the 2025 basket but if they look a step behind once again, expect Mercedes to pull down the shutters and go all-out for 2026.