IndyCar Nashville finale: Who can win the 2024 championship

2024 IndyCar Nashville: How the points work

Before we dig too deep into the combinations and permutations of IndyCar’s championship finale, let’s take a quick look at the points on offer, and how many points each title contender has.

Right now, the current championship standings look something like this:

Alex Palou: 525 points
Will Power: 492 points (-33 to Palou)
Scott McLaughlin: 475 points (-50 to Palou)

On any given weekend, there are 54 total points up for grabs.

Let’s start with a breakdown of race finish points:

50 points
40 points
35 points
32 points
30 points
28 points
26 points
24 points
22 points
20 points
19 points
18 points
17 points
16 points
15 points
14 points
13 points
12 points
11 points
10 points
9 points
8 points
7 points
6 points
and below: 5 points

Every driver that starts an IndyCar race — even if they only drive one lap — earns five points.

In addition, there are four extra points that can be awarded:

1 point for pole position
1 point for leading at least one lap
2 points for leading the most laps

If a driver takes pole, the win, and leads the most laps in a race, he can earn 54 points maximum during the Nashville finale.

2024 IndyCar title contender No. 3: Scott McLaughlin

Our first theoretical title contender this year is also our least likely: Team Penske’s Scott McLaughlin.

Scott McLaughlin sits exactly 50 points in arrears of championship leader Alex Palou. A total of 54 points is on offer this weekend, with a guaranteed five just for starting the race.

All Alex Palou needs to do to knock McLaughlin out of contention is start at Nashville — and it’s highly unlikely that he won’t.

We’re still including McLaughlin here because of that theoretical chance that something happens to Palou — an illness, an injury, or a mortally doomed race car. Still, even if Palou feels terrible or suffers from a similar battery issue that prevented him from taking the start at Milwaukee, he just needs to hop in his car at any point during the event to turn a lap.

If for some reason Palou doesn’t start at Nashville, then McLaughlin will still need to score every point possible to overcome the deficit and take the title.

2024 IndyCar title contender No. 2: Will Power

Will Power has a slightly better shot at the 2024 IndyCar title than his Penske teammate — but he’ll have to work hard to get there.

There are a handful of permutations that see Power win, but he cannot finish fourth or lower in any of them. If Power comes fourth, he’ll only score 32 points — which isn’t enough to overcome the 33-point deficit to Palou. Even if Power scores all four bonus points, Palou would get five just for starting.

The other permutations for a Power title include:

Will Power wins, while Palou comes 12th (and neither earn bonus points).
Will Power wins with three bonus points, while Palou comes 10th or lower.
Will Power wins with four bonus points, while Palou finishes 10th or lower.
Will Power comes second while Palou finishes 23rd or lower (and neither earn bonus points).
Will Power comes second with one bonus point while Palou finishes 22nd or lower.
Will Power comes second with two bonus points while Palou finishes 21st or lower.
Will Power comes second with three bonus points while Palou finishes 20th or lower.
Will Power comes second with four bonus points while Palou finishes 19th or lower.
Will Power comes third with three bonus points while Palou finish 25th or lower.
Will Power comes third with four bonus points while Palou finishes 24th or lower.
Will Power and Alex Palou tie on points but neither win (Power has three wins to Palou’s two).

IndyCar talking points heading into the finale:

???? Zak Brown takes aim at IndyCar in new letter: ‘There’s more we can do to elevate the sport’

???? IndyCar CEO has promised international races before — but is it different this time?

2024 IndyCar title contender No. 1: Alex Palou

Alex Palou of Chip Ganassi Racing looks well positioned to take his third IndyCar title.

In effect, all he needs to do to win it is to score 22 points more than Will Power, even if Power takes all 54 points on offer in Nashville. In other words, that means Palou needs only finish in ninth place or higher.

You can also check the permutations above to see what Palou would have to do to out-score Power. Other iterations include:

If Palou scores pole position, he’d only need 20 points (10th or higher, or 11th plus leading a lap) to win.
If Palou doesn’t get pole but leads the most laps, Palou would only need to finish 13th or better to win.
If Palou gets all bonus points but Power wins, Palou only needs to finish in 14th or better to win.

Alex Palou has won two IndyCar titles without ever winning on an oval — but that’s not to say he isn’t a competent oval racer. In fact, Palou has regularly escaped disaster to finish within the top 5 at most oval events this year.

It would be silly to expect him to somehow perform even worse at the finale. After all, Palou is well poised to take a title, even with a mediocre performance.

But what if it rains?

Keen fans of American motorsport will know that racing is a no-go when it rains on an oval track. The slick surfaces become too dangerous in the rain, even with wet-weather tires. So what happens if it rains on Sunday ahead of IndyCar’s season finale?

Hurricane Francine made landfall in America earlier this week, and several other tropical storms have been brewing in the Atlantic — all of which carry a thread of ample rainfall in Lebanon, TN, where Nashville Superspeedway is located. While the forecast for Sunday has started to clear up, an unpredictable shower could stymie the intended start.

Should rain delay the start of the finale, IndyCar will host the event under the lights at Nashville in an effort to get the race in on race day. However, if the race never starts, or if rain prematurely red-flags the event before the halfway point, then IndyCar will have to reschedule the event for Monday.